Bosnia,
a linchpin of allied defence planning in the 1990s, has in the following decade
now become a matter of strategic concern because of its role in the war on
terror. Its position in
counterterror is pressing due to the conjunction between Bosnia's legacy of war
(with inflamed religious sentiment and clandestine networks banished to
Bosnia's margins but not eradicated), Bosnia's position on the doorstep of
Europe, and the connections formed during the Bosnian War between Bosnian
territory and religiously-based clandestine movements abroad. The presence of terrorist networks in
Bosnia is still further troubling because of their potential to magnify other
causes of instability, through involvement in organised crime, gun smuggling,
extortion, and racketeering.
Bosnia
has proven an important, and largely successful, ground of contest for allied
and European counterterror efforts.
Since the end of the war, roughly seven hundred militants from the
Middle East and Maghreb have remained or taken up residence in Bosnia, along
with a number of questionable charities with links to international terrorist
networks. Many of the foreign
mujahideen have married and settled in remote areas. In October 2001, Bosnian police arrested and deported to the
United States six Algerian nationals under suspicion of plotting to attack the
American embassy. Police raids in
2002 uncovered, amongst other indications of clandestine activity, forged
passports, explosives and firearms, and several letters from Osama bin
Laden. In the past year, Bosnian
territory has become a refuge, recruiting source, and financial conduit for a
flow of terrorist operatives moving between Chechnya, Afghanistan, Europe, and
Iraq. Finally, the intense pace of
US and European intelligence operations in Bosnia - Bosnia constitutes one of
the largest deployments by US intelligence anywhere in the world - have raised criticisms of the United
States in the local press for bypassing the nation's courts and legal system,
as well as for neglecting war criminals.
On the other hand, grounds for optimism include the considerable
cooperation Bosnian officials have extended SFOR in monitoring and
investigating terrorist networks and suspected foreign operatives. Furthermore, the preponderance of
Bosnia's Islamic community follow the moderate Hanafi tradition of Southeastern
Europe, and Bosnian Muslim leaders such as Grand Mufti Dr Mustafa Ceric have
won international praise for their efforts to promote religious reconciliation. Nonetheless, radical religious elements
are attempting as a high priority to build upon their foothold in Bosnia's
margins, and the role of counterterror operations in providing stability in the
nation will continue to be an important function under EUFOR.
In
spite of its importance, Bosnian terrorism has been minimally addressed in the
policy debate outside governments.
This chapter will address policy questions relevant to Bosnian terrorism
and counterterror operations, against the context of the pending transition of
control from the Nato-directed SFOR to the European-directed EUFOR. The chapter's task will be to gauge
progress in counterterror as well as trends amongst terrorist networks, and to
draw the attention of European and Allied policymakers to neglected operational
and doctrinal differences in their counterterrorism efforts to facilitate as
effective a handover and prosecution of counterterrorism under European control
as possible. This piece's five
principal substantive contributions will be:
1. a
summary of principal terrorist organisations within BiH and their domestic,
international, and ideological contexts.
2. a
review of the history of counterterror operations within BiH and their
evolution in connection with enhanced counterterror operations since 2001, as
well as relevant SFOR lessons learned which may prove most useful for EUFOR
planners.
3. in
the context of the SFOR-EUFOR handover, an investigation of doctrinal and
operational counterterror differences between Nato and ESDP which may prove
useful to highlight for both partners
4. a
discussion of the role of counterterrorism, intelligence, and Ministry of the
Interior responsibilities within a broader and paramount Bosnian security
sector reform agenda, in which key other issues include unification of the
General Staff and creation of an MoD within which to place the newly appointed
Defence Minister
5. an
enquiry into the line between military and policing: since the EU will also be
co-ordinating Bosnia's police operation, will cooperation between military and
police be enhanced by co-ordinated European control, or conversely are there
operational or doctrinal differences between uniformed and civilian units which
ought to be highlighted? In their division of responsibilities, will the EU
military forces see more areas as police responsibilities where Nato might have
achieved less co-operation with the police? Further handover-related questions lie in whether a
continued Nato role will result from a continued Nato presence tasked with the
tracking and capture of war criminals, and if so, how this role will coexist
with EUFOR.
Principal
sources for this research lie in interviews with a series of fairly well-placed
practitioners and experts:
Rohan
Gunaratna, author
Gen
Graham Messervy-Whiting, former deputy chief of EU military staff, expert on
ESDP and Nato, and for current contacts in Brussels
Gen
Drewienkiewicz (through ICG Sarajevo), military advisor for High Rep. Paddy
Ashdown and director of Security Cooperation at OSCE Mission, principal expert
in EUFOR mission preparation
Col
Michael Ryan, DOD Advisor, USEU (through Leo Michel and Jim Schear at Nat'l
Defence University)
Lt
Col Tommy Tracy, expert on the
SFOR-EUFOR handover (through Grame Herd)
Dr
James Pettifer, expert on Bosnian terrorism at CSRC, Defence Academy UK (also
through Dr Herd)
Adm
Jean Dufourcq (through Jeremy Shapiro, CSIS), French representative to the EU
military staff
Nora
Bensahel, RAND, expert on Nato counterterror doctrine and Nato-EU relations
Jim
Ron, McGill University, researcher on Bosnian paramilitary groups
Ed
Joseph, ICG Balkan counterterror expert (through Fran Burwell, Atlantic
Council)
Dick
Nelson, former Nato counterterror expert at Atlantic Council
Maida
Agovic, Cambridge, whose dissertation on Bosnia between Washington and Brussels
includes the war on terror
Drs
Jeff Simon and Steve Meyers at Nat'l Defence Uni, researchers on Nato and
Bosnia
Mike
Sheehan, former State Department Coordinator for Counterterrorism (through
James Steinberg, Brookings)
Cees
Wiebes, author of Intelligence and the War in Bosnia,
1992-1995
Jim
O'Brien (via Julianne Smith, CSIS), Albright Group
Gen
Montgomery Meigs (through Ted Gittinger, Univ. of Texas)
Gen
Bill Nash (via Mike Peters, CFR)
Background
interviews in intelligence community (through former DCI James Woolsey and
other sources)
I
have also been receiving suggestions and advice in this research from:
Jeremy
Shapiro and James Steinberg (Brookings)
Anne
Moisan, Chris Cavoli, Leo Michel, and James Schear (National Defence
University)
Roy
Giles (St Antony's College, Oxford, and retired British intelligence)
Julianne
Smith (deputy director of international security programme, CSIS)
Sir
Brian Crowe
Capt.
Keith Allred, USN, Associate Dean, Marshall Centre
Nermin
Mulalic
Robin
Bhatty, International Crisis Group
Senad
Slatina, ICG Sarajevo
James
Goldgeier (George Washington University)
Fran
Burwell (Director, program on transatlantic relations, Atlantic council)
Brendan
Simms (Cambridge)
Melanie McDonagh (journalist)